The Big Three Campaign Strategies

As things shake out in the Democratic and Republican campaigns, it is worth looking at the successful campaign strategies and what they may augur for November.

As one might expect, Clinton's campaign has the sharpest outlines and most recognizable strategy on the block. In some ways her strategy is the most simple of all--on the one hand she has looked towards the general election from day one by having moderate positions on key issues. On the other hand, it is her intent to pretty much take for granted the liberals and party faithful whom she has inherited from Bill and her time in the White House. With all such strategies the strength lies in the details, and her's includes a prominent role for surrogate Bill, nudging Obama from his unity theme, and crafting an image in the debates and her stump speeches like like someone who could eat more glass than the Republican and Democratic candidates combined.

Obama's campaign has organized itself around the principle that people are not only fed up with the Republicans but with the Clinton dynasty, and he has tried to transform his relative inexperience into an attribute. The other portion of the Obama strategy relies on his ability to unite Democrats, Republicans, and Independents in a coalition whose primary concern is based on idealism and, to a lesser extent, specific policy proposals. In a kind of short hand, Obama is the candidate of inspiration while Clinton is the technocrat, someone who does not inspire like Obama but who promises to have a well thought out plan and contingencies for all the contingencies.

As usual, McCain is flying by the seat of his pants, appealing to Republican moderates and Independents for the same reason he has in the past but working this time to mollify evangelicals or at least not antagonize them as he did when he battled with Bush. Walking this tightrope is difficult enough but McCain's fate thus far has been tremulously linked to one issue--the war in Iraq. As that war goes, so too goes McCain's fate. As long a s the surge appears to have quelled violence, McCain is ok. If there is an upswing in violence, the Iraqi government collapses, or any number of other things happens, Republicans will rue the day they voted for him in the primaries.

Of the three, Clinton's strategy seems most likely to be successful in terms of securing the Democratic nomination and, ultimately, the Presidency. Although she did not inject race into the campaign--if anything Obama's staff in South Carolina, with a big assist from the media did this--Clinton's loss in South Carolina may not have been such a big loss afterall. A central theme of Obama's candidacy is unity across racial as well as political lines, but by the time the SC vote was in, the race couldn't have been more divided, with blacks voting for Obama and whites voting for Clinton or Edwards. Coming out of New Hampshire, Clinton's intent leading up to South Carolina appeared to be to embroil Obama in conflict and knock him off, even slightly, from his themes of unity and coming together. She succeeded in doing this in a State she had known for months she had no chance of winning. And what about the blacks that voted for Obama? Once Obama is gone and the general election rolls around they will be back with Hillary. Tough as nails, the most conservative Democrat in the race, with the base fully behind her--this is the Clinton strategy writ large.

More generally, Clinton is pulling out all the stops, making the most of victories in Michigan and Florida where no delegates were awarded, loosing Bill on voters everywhere, and by going after Obama, even if that means distorting his positions to do so. Out of the innocuous comment that he is not a micro manager or paper shuffler, Clinton has said that Obama is unfit to lead; when he mentioned that Ronald Reagan was able to rally people to Republican ideas, he was branded a lover of Ronald Reagan. All a kind of repugnant Karl Rove lite. When it is all over though her hard-nosed run up to South Carolina may be considered the the point where B's campaign, despite a big victory in the primary itself, went into a fatal downward spiral.

When November comes Hillary should be well positioned: as much a centrist or moderate candidate as it is possible for her to be; the Democrat with reputation as someone you wouldn't want to mess with in a knife fight; and... supported by a fully committed base. And John McCain? We'll just have to see what happens in Iraq.

As for me, despite Clinton's bright prospects I will be looking over my shoulder like Democrats (and Cubs fans) everywhere until she and Bill are firmly ensconced in the White House. If she continues to run the crack campaign she has run to this point, when the campaign is at an end that's where they will be. Then her campaign can be dissected, analyzed, and committed to the history and poltical science books as one of the smartest, toughest (and somewhat distasteful) Presidential campaigns ever.

John McCain Now and Forever?

Well, now John McCain has gone and done it. With yesterday's victory in Florida over Mitt Romney he is well-positioned to pile up candidates on Super Tuesday, get a much-needed infusion of cash and Republican establishment support, and put a stake in Mitt's artificial heart. Rudy is history and Chucklebee will soon be as well.

Some think that Romney will loose his wealth on the Super Tuesday primaries and rally around him disaffected party conservatives who think that McCain is a communist. I don't though. I think after this Tuesday, both parties will have have their candidates for November--McCain and Hillary Clinton. Both candidates ought to pretty much run the large delegate-rich states of CA and NY. In the prize states after February 5, for the Democrats it is hard to see anyone other than Clinton taking states like Ohio and Pennsylvania. Add to that Clinton's super delegates and Obama's improbable rise--at least as a Presidential candidate this time around--should be at an end. Romney likely won't be around by then.

Although HC is probably the best candidate the Democrats can put forward, it is difficult for any Democrat to be sanguine about her chances against McCain. As I saw a leering, victorious McCain last night, I had a feeling very similar to the one I had in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected President. Even though November is a long way off, I think I will be spending most of this period with that sinking feeling and turbulence in the gut--conditions I've had frequently over the last couple decades.

My Man, Mitt: The Florida Republican Primary, 2008

I haven't been watching the polls terribly closely during the run up to today's primary. Part of the reason is that I simply am not as interested in the Republican race as I am in the Democratic campaign, but an even more important reason is that the polls and media claptrap leading up to these events bear little relation to the outcome. In other words, if you are looking to get a bead on who will win the race, polls and pundits are about as helpful as the color commenters for Monday Night Football.

All of this by way of saying that I'm not going to analyze any polls or chart the babble from newspapers or television but rather that I am going to take this opportunity to express my heartfelt desire that Mitt Romney grabs Florida by the throat tonight. I hope he wins because I would like to see the Republicans in dissaray and spending $ for as long as possible, and because I would prefer that Mitt be the GOP's nominee. Romney may have deep pockets and a certain kind of appeal to would-be morticians, but beyond that his politics and personal characteristics virtually assure that the Democrat nominee--whoever it is--will be the next President of this country. That ought to be the case with McCain as well but he has shown an ability to appeal to some independent voters and even some Democrats. Heck, he may even believe in evolution.

Florida is a closed primary where only registered Republicans may vote, something which could favor Romney tonight. On the other hand, the open primary in Michigan, which Romney won, may have tipped it to Plastoman because it permitted Democrats to vote for him for the same reasons I suggest--they see him as singularly trounceable.

While I will be chanting "Go Mitt go," from my La-Z-Boy for reasons no more profound than these, there should be some interesting fallout from the Florida primary. Huckebee/Hucklebee and Guiliani will likely be asking when it is over how it could have all gone to shit so fast and considering when to announce an end to their candidacies, and McCain, if he wins, will have good reason to claim that he should be the Republicans' nominee.

If Mitt wins, though, the Republicans can continue to beat up on one another, Romney can continue to inspire undertakers everywhere, and there will be joy in (Democratic) Mudville.

Republican Caricatures

Senator John McCain (R-Arizona)

Aka Dr. Strangelove II. If he doesn't push the button because of mental illness, he will do so as a result of senility. Has crafted a reputation as a maverick but resembles much more a dinosaur (Stegasaurus?). It is difficult to understand what it is the elephants don't like about him. His popularity in Arizona means everyone should give this State a wide berth.

Former Governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney (R)

When Willard "Mitt" Romney shakes your mitt you can't shake the feeling he is sizing you up for a pine box, a cheap automobile, or piece of real estate in the swamp (take your pick). He looks like he dyes his hair and eyebrows with cheap shoe polish and reportedly has his shoes resoled with astroturf. Has a hot wife but, like McCain's, if you look closely you can see the key Romney uses to wind her up poking out of the back of her blouse. Odious does not begin to describe this flip-flopping opportunist.

Former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee/Hucklebee (R)

Who cares what his name is? After Iowa, he has gone down the rabbit hole...in search, it would seem, of Easter eggs of mass destruction (EEMD). Give him a month or two and he will be appearing with Don Shula and Dan Marino in NutriSystem ads or running a concession at Dollywood in the Smoky Mountains.

Former Mayor of NYC, Rudolph Giuliani (R)

Does RG really exist? I could have sworn I saw him at a debate or two or even heard him answering a cell phone call from his wife in the middle of a stump speech. Nah, can't be. If he does, in fact, exist he is almost certain to go down in history as pursuing one of the most hare-brained campaign strategies ever. The good news is that after he gets stomped in Florida tomorrow, he can pursue what appears to be his real goal--becoming Chief of Police in Mauratania.

Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas)

Having two first names will at least make it easy when folks tire of RP's nonsense and he has need for an alias when he slips into hiding. Just when you are ready to clap him on the back and sign him up as a Democrat, he tells you the transmitting frequencies of his fillings or reveals that the government is bathing all new dollar bills in plutonium. Who is it, exactly, who is contributing their hard-earned dollars to this man?

Aftermath of the SC Democratic Primary: Reading the Tea Leaves

Immediately after the close of the polls in South Carolina’s Democratic primary last night, most of the media, like Barack Obama’s supporters, was calling the victory a “rout,” and citing how well he did across the State and will nearly all categories of voters. By the time the votes were in the term rout appeared justified with Obama receiving a whopping 55 percent of all voters to 27 percent and 18 percent for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, respectively. Obama’s inspirational speech afterwards did nothing to stem the enthusiasm and before it was all over the media was falling over itself to kiss the ring of Obama.

There were a few yawps across the airwaves, however, notably from Pat Buchanan and Jeffrey Toobin, analysts appearing on the various channels for the post-campaign divinations, who pointed out that when all was said and done, Obama didn’t do terribly well with the white voters. These views were literally shouted down by the other pundits giddy from the margin of victory and the allure of the victor. The exit polls, though, should have sobered people some, as they clearly suggest that race played a role in South Carolina, with nearly 80 percent of blacks voting for Obama and whites giving an equally astounding 75 percent of their votes to Clinton and Edwards. Here are how whites in the various age groups and as a percentage of voters overall (number in parentheses) voted for Obama, according to exit polls published by CNN on its website, CnnPolitics.com:

Non-black 18-29 (5%) 52%
Non-black 30-44 (9%) 25%
Non-black 45-59 (15%) 23%
Non-black 60 (16%) 15%

The alignment around race suggested by the exit polls is a troubling sign for Obama because it suggests that he may find it difficult to win enough white votes in states that are primarily white. Despite Obama’s large margin of victory, the numbers above indicate that among non-black voters from 30-60+ Obama received approximately 20 percent of the vote, a group making up 40 percent of Democratic voters on Saturday. In the one non-black category in which he did well—the 18-29 age group, the voters represented only 5 percent of all voters. While Obama did surpass expectations concerning the ultimate number of white votes he received, this showing may suggest trouble come the February 5 primaries and caucuses of so-called Super Tuesday, when white voters will play a much larger role in most of the delegate-heavy states.

If Obama continues to get a quarter or less of white voters in the various states it is unlikely he will be the Democratic nominee. If he is somehow able to manage this, though, he may be even more vulnerable in the general election. Astonishingly, electability was apparently an issue to only 6 percent of South Carolina’s voters on Saturday (CNN, MSNBC). If Obama’s numbers in South Carolina are repeated in key states during Super Tuesday, some Democrats may have to stop following their hearts and exercise their minds. As momentous and transformative it would be to have a black president, and as inspirational and capable as Obama appears to be, it would be disastrous for Democrats to make a choice that could permit Republicans to maintain the presidency for at least another four years.

Slouching Towards the Presidency, 2008: Why Race Matters

While the Democrats (and even the Republicans from time to time) are evoking Martin Luther King whenever there are black voters to be courted, King’s goal of a color blind United States seems a long way off.

It was inevitable that Obama’s campaign which trumpets change and unity and largely avoids discussion of race would become mired in this. By New Hampshire, pundits trying to rationalize their inaccurate predictions and the discrepancies in the faulty exit polls of their employers, even suggested that some white voters were too embarrassed to say that they hadn’t (not that they wouldn’t vote for a black candidate, mind you) voted for a black person. From there things got even sillier with Hillary Clinton emphasizing Lyndon Johnson’s role in the civil rights movement over MLK, some said; and Obama’s campaign only too happy to establish Obama’s black cred in South Carolina, a state in which about 50 percent of the demo voters are black, by saying in a press release Hillary didn’t credit MLK enough. Add some media fuel to the fire, and presto, race is at the forefront of the Democratic race.

Voters may be falling into line as well. Many blacks appear to have set aside their qualms about whether Obama is black enough, whether he can win as a black man, and some are asking whether they should support the wife of the “first black president” because she, like her husband, really isn’t black. Some blacks in South Carolina seemed to rally for Obama when his staff in South Carolina suggested that Hillary Clinton is racializing the campaign. Some whites are reacting predictably, it appears, by moving to support Hillary Clinton or John Edwards.

In short, woe to the candidate that discusses race other than in platitudes, or, more precisely, woe to the black candidate. Leaving aside the question as to who is responsible for racializing the campaign, it is Obama who will likely pay for it. Obama is not in danger of becoming marginalized like Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, but he will certainly lose votes in both the primary and, if he makes it that far, even more in the general election if race continues to play such a prominent role. The meaningful discussion of race, as important as it is to the well-being of this country, is politically repulsive to voters and the more it is discussed, the better for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. White voters do not want to discuss race any more than they want to discuss class and there is little room on the national political scene for a black candidate that is perceived to have a racial axe to grind.

Maybe whites are ready to put aside the most banal but detrimental aspects of racialism—thinking primarily in terms of race--and do as so many black voters have done for so long and vote for the candidate that best supports their interests. Whites have done this also in liberal Massachusetts, for example, where Deval Patrick was elected Governor. Few would argue that Massachusetts is like most of the country, however, and there are a lot of states—South Carolina is certainly one of these--where some whites wouldn’t vote for a black person if he walked on water, let alone if he were perceived to see things racially.

The Democratic campaign will give us a pretty good idea as to how near or far we are from MLK’s color blind society. One of our first glimpses will be in South Carolina tonight.