Aftermath of the SC Democratic Primary: Reading the Tea Leaves

Immediately after the close of the polls in South Carolina’s Democratic primary last night, most of the media, like Barack Obama’s supporters, was calling the victory a “rout,” and citing how well he did across the State and will nearly all categories of voters. By the time the votes were in the term rout appeared justified with Obama receiving a whopping 55 percent of all voters to 27 percent and 18 percent for Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, respectively. Obama’s inspirational speech afterwards did nothing to stem the enthusiasm and before it was all over the media was falling over itself to kiss the ring of Obama.

There were a few yawps across the airwaves, however, notably from Pat Buchanan and Jeffrey Toobin, analysts appearing on the various channels for the post-campaign divinations, who pointed out that when all was said and done, Obama didn’t do terribly well with the white voters. These views were literally shouted down by the other pundits giddy from the margin of victory and the allure of the victor. The exit polls, though, should have sobered people some, as they clearly suggest that race played a role in South Carolina, with nearly 80 percent of blacks voting for Obama and whites giving an equally astounding 75 percent of their votes to Clinton and Edwards. Here are how whites in the various age groups and as a percentage of voters overall (number in parentheses) voted for Obama, according to exit polls published by CNN on its website, CnnPolitics.com:

Non-black 18-29 (5%) 52%
Non-black 30-44 (9%) 25%
Non-black 45-59 (15%) 23%
Non-black 60 (16%) 15%

The alignment around race suggested by the exit polls is a troubling sign for Obama because it suggests that he may find it difficult to win enough white votes in states that are primarily white. Despite Obama’s large margin of victory, the numbers above indicate that among non-black voters from 30-60+ Obama received approximately 20 percent of the vote, a group making up 40 percent of Democratic voters on Saturday. In the one non-black category in which he did well—the 18-29 age group, the voters represented only 5 percent of all voters. While Obama did surpass expectations concerning the ultimate number of white votes he received, this showing may suggest trouble come the February 5 primaries and caucuses of so-called Super Tuesday, when white voters will play a much larger role in most of the delegate-heavy states.

If Obama continues to get a quarter or less of white voters in the various states it is unlikely he will be the Democratic nominee. If he is somehow able to manage this, though, he may be even more vulnerable in the general election. Astonishingly, electability was apparently an issue to only 6 percent of South Carolina’s voters on Saturday (CNN, MSNBC). If Obama’s numbers in South Carolina are repeated in key states during Super Tuesday, some Democrats may have to stop following their hearts and exercise their minds. As momentous and transformative it would be to have a black president, and as inspirational and capable as Obama appears to be, it would be disastrous for Democrats to make a choice that could permit Republicans to maintain the presidency for at least another four years.