The Big Three Campaign Strategies

As things shake out in the Democratic and Republican campaigns, it is worth looking at the successful campaign strategies and what they may augur for November.

As one might expect, Clinton's campaign has the sharpest outlines and most recognizable strategy on the block. In some ways her strategy is the most simple of all--on the one hand she has looked towards the general election from day one by having moderate positions on key issues. On the other hand, it is her intent to pretty much take for granted the liberals and party faithful whom she has inherited from Bill and her time in the White House. With all such strategies the strength lies in the details, and her's includes a prominent role for surrogate Bill, nudging Obama from his unity theme, and crafting an image in the debates and her stump speeches like like someone who could eat more glass than the Republican and Democratic candidates combined.

Obama's campaign has organized itself around the principle that people are not only fed up with the Republicans but with the Clinton dynasty, and he has tried to transform his relative inexperience into an attribute. The other portion of the Obama strategy relies on his ability to unite Democrats, Republicans, and Independents in a coalition whose primary concern is based on idealism and, to a lesser extent, specific policy proposals. In a kind of short hand, Obama is the candidate of inspiration while Clinton is the technocrat, someone who does not inspire like Obama but who promises to have a well thought out plan and contingencies for all the contingencies.

As usual, McCain is flying by the seat of his pants, appealing to Republican moderates and Independents for the same reason he has in the past but working this time to mollify evangelicals or at least not antagonize them as he did when he battled with Bush. Walking this tightrope is difficult enough but McCain's fate thus far has been tremulously linked to one issue--the war in Iraq. As that war goes, so too goes McCain's fate. As long a s the surge appears to have quelled violence, McCain is ok. If there is an upswing in violence, the Iraqi government collapses, or any number of other things happens, Republicans will rue the day they voted for him in the primaries.

Of the three, Clinton's strategy seems most likely to be successful in terms of securing the Democratic nomination and, ultimately, the Presidency. Although she did not inject race into the campaign--if anything Obama's staff in South Carolina, with a big assist from the media did this--Clinton's loss in South Carolina may not have been such a big loss afterall. A central theme of Obama's candidacy is unity across racial as well as political lines, but by the time the SC vote was in, the race couldn't have been more divided, with blacks voting for Obama and whites voting for Clinton or Edwards. Coming out of New Hampshire, Clinton's intent leading up to South Carolina appeared to be to embroil Obama in conflict and knock him off, even slightly, from his themes of unity and coming together. She succeeded in doing this in a State she had known for months she had no chance of winning. And what about the blacks that voted for Obama? Once Obama is gone and the general election rolls around they will be back with Hillary. Tough as nails, the most conservative Democrat in the race, with the base fully behind her--this is the Clinton strategy writ large.

More generally, Clinton is pulling out all the stops, making the most of victories in Michigan and Florida where no delegates were awarded, loosing Bill on voters everywhere, and by going after Obama, even if that means distorting his positions to do so. Out of the innocuous comment that he is not a micro manager or paper shuffler, Clinton has said that Obama is unfit to lead; when he mentioned that Ronald Reagan was able to rally people to Republican ideas, he was branded a lover of Ronald Reagan. All a kind of repugnant Karl Rove lite. When it is all over though her hard-nosed run up to South Carolina may be considered the the point where B's campaign, despite a big victory in the primary itself, went into a fatal downward spiral.

When November comes Hillary should be well positioned: as much a centrist or moderate candidate as it is possible for her to be; the Democrat with reputation as someone you wouldn't want to mess with in a knife fight; and... supported by a fully committed base. And John McCain? We'll just have to see what happens in Iraq.

As for me, despite Clinton's bright prospects I will be looking over my shoulder like Democrats (and Cubs fans) everywhere until she and Bill are firmly ensconced in the White House. If she continues to run the crack campaign she has run to this point, when the campaign is at an end that's where they will be. Then her campaign can be dissected, analyzed, and committed to the history and poltical science books as one of the smartest, toughest (and somewhat distasteful) Presidential campaigns ever.