Fight or Flight: What are Hillary Clinton and the Democrats to Do?? (Barbaric Yawp)

There are only a couple of readers who still believe in the promise of this blog—my wife and Barney, my dog—but one of them recently noticed a change in tone, that it appeared I’d all but conceded nomination to Obama. This, despite my writing almost obsessively in the past about HC’s greater electability.

True, every bit of it, but I’d like to explain myself.

I haven’t completely given up the notion that HC can win. I’ve watched too many football and baseball games—remember Franco Harris’ immaculate reception, or Kirk Gibson’s walk-off homerun?—too many Disney movies, and still remember Bush v. Gore to think anything is impossible. Anyway, it just isn’t American to think something is a lost cause until the final light blinks out, the door slams shut, or the fork is inserted all the way to the handle.

That said, HC really doesn’t have much of a chance at winning the Democratic nomination unless Obama falls squarely on his face. Even if she wins PA (April 22), NC, and Indiana (both vote on May 6) with about 60 percent of the vote in each instance, she would still have to convince the superdelegates as she would still trail in pledged delegates and probably popular votes (I’m not even going to mention states as this is wholly non-sensical measure, despite what the pundits frequently say).

Oh sure, Clinton would have a pretty good argument with the superdelegates after big wins in all three but an uphill battle even then to get them simply to do what they are supposed to do—exercise their judgment as they see fit. It would be a real slog as the super ds are unlikely to risk alienating black voters who are supporting Obama as completely and passionately as any constituency has supported any presidential candidate at almost any time in our history. So the truth is that were the nomination to come down to this unlikely scenario, that is, if HC wins big in all three of the remaining large primaries, the superdelegates are likely to vote for Obama because they can’t afford to enrage one of the most important elements of the Party’s base, even if the independence and relative lack of accountability (at least of about half of them who are not elected officials) of the superdelegates is considered a crucial aspect of the nominating process. So, no matter how you slice it, HC is likely to lose, even if she is less likely to go quietly into the good night.

I have been at least implicitly acknowledging this state of affairs in my recent writings, so my wife and Barney are right to notice. What I haven’t indicated, even implicitly, is what I think HC should do regarding forging on in the face of the poor delegate math and the Shakespearean bloodbath that probably awaits the Democrats should they go all the way to the convention without a nominee.

I haven’t written about this, I think, because I have mixed feelings. The reptilian part of me wants to see her take it as far as she can go, right into the maw of convention in Denver this summer. Although few will acknowledge it, there is, intermingled with the horror, excitement at the unfolding and aftermath of a head-on collision. It also would be instructive to see just where the creaky Democratic nominating process would lead. Never before has this odd hybrid of proportional representation and autocracy, volatile mix of caucuses and primaries, and ambivalence about the role of Party leaders and the hoi polloi been so thrown into relief. Maybe the more apt analogy would be to say that were it to come down to this kind of endgame, it would be most like examining the innards of Big Foot, finally captured.

The more reasonable part of me knows this is nonsense though, that it would be best for all concerned if HC were to continue through the big three primaries and then seriously reassesses her chances after the dust settles May 6 in the last of these. If things remain largely the same, that is, if Barack Obama is still upright and taking nourishment, Clinton should seriously consider getting out of the race. Were she to do this she would likely be able to say that she had won all of the big states, except Obama’s home state of Illinois, and, more important, all of the crucial swing states, the so-called purple states, for purposes of the general election, of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. And were she to fold her tent at that time she would certainly be praised for saving the Party from consuming itself and, better yet, rewarded with something other than a lousy speech at the national convention. And who knows what might happen four or five years down the road?

This doesn’t mean that I think Obama has the chance of a snowball in Hell in winning in November. Not only do I think he will lose to McCain, I think he will probably lose substantially. Make no mistake, this outcome is not what I want, and I am not one of those voters who, if Clinton loses, will not vote for Obama. But, for reasons I have discussed here before, I just don’t believe Obama will have the pull in the swing states I mentioned. Democrats have been unable to win without them in the past and, Obama’s meaningless victories in Idaho and Wyoming notwithstanding, they will surely need them again this time around.

This is why, Barney, a battle royal, despite all the possible consequences, remains so appealing, and why I can’t completely reject it.

Woofimus Maximus.