Barack Obama, the Perfect Candidate—for the Democratic Primary

Barack Obama is the perfect candidate—for the Democratic primary. His strategy to take what he could get from the bigger states like California and New York while picking off delegates from the caucus states has been brilliant—for the primary. And making a virtue of his inexperience by valuing above all his judgment, on his opposition to the Iraq War, for example—well, you know the rest.

All these things, from Obama’s marvelous bottom-to-top organization of precincts and caucuses to his steady, unconventional accumulation of delegates, which have to this point been a boon and have pretty much given Obama a stranglehold on the Democratic nomination, are likely to lead to disaster for the Democrats this fall.

If the Democratic nomination were winner-take-all as is the case in most of the Republican primaries and is so with the general election and the electoral college, Obama would already be back in the Senate dodging controversial votes on matters such as the FISA bill, and Hillary Clinton would be the Party’s nominee. But he isn’t and she isn’t, and instead Obama will likely take his association with Reverend Jeremiah Wright, the increasing recognition that he is far to the left of most Democrats, and questions about his patriotism and experience into the battle for the presidency with McCain.

Obama has been able thus far to turn the tables on his Democratic challengers, concerning the issue of experience and his liberalism or association with Wright isn’t nearly the problem with primary voters as it will be in the general election. But in the general election it will be all about experience, who is toughest on terrorism and security issues, and who is the most patriotic. And by the time it is all over, and the security moms and dads and every other idiot just cognizant enough to make it to a voting booth have punched their ballots, pulled their levers, activated their touch screens and done their bit for god and country, Obama’s judgment and patriotism will likely be devalued to the price of German banknotes in the 1920s, and the Democrats will be left holding the bag once again

Obama has developed an organization and implemented a strategy that has permitted him to accumulate more delegates, more popular votes, and more states than his only remaining competitor, and the superdelegates, though they are intended to save the Democrats from unelectable candidates, are almost certain to go with Obama because of great pressure from his supporters to do so. If Obama wins he will have earned it, Hillary Clinton’s operatives will need to have their heads examined for signs of brain activity, and the Democrats will deserve what’s coming to them.

Because if Obama is the nominee, it doesn’t mean that he is the candidate most likely to beat McCain in November, but that he mastered the ins and outs of the ludicrous Democratic nominating process which, with its patchwork of caucuses, arcane awarding of delegates in states like Texas, and emphasis on party activists, doesn’t bear any relation to determining a candidate’s strength in the general election.

So unfortunate as it is, when the general election is over, and Democrats have borne witness to another ritual slaughter, the DNC will need to get together and implement a nominating process that is efficient, fair, and has as its fundamental goal determining the candidate most likely to win in the general election, not just the primary.