Hillary Clinton and her Electability Castor Oil for the Superdelegates

From the outset of the 2008 race for the Democratic nomination in early January to today’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, Barack Obama has rarely won a majority of white Democrat votes in the primaries. This is not such a big deal perhaps when John Edwards was still in the race and competing for such voters, but noteworthy if you consider that since Edwards dropped out of the race Obama has won only the white Democrat vote in the primary in Illinois, his home state, Vermont, a state so liberal it doesn’t belong in the United States, and New Mexico, a state he lost. Obama’s lack of success with white Democrats includes states such as Maryland and Virginia, which Obama won handily (with 60 and 64 percent of the total vote, respectively).

This should be troubling to Democrats under any circumstances, should Obama be the Party’s nominee, but his performance with white Democrats is especially troubling when coupled with the fact that Obama has needed significant help from independents and even Republicans to win in nearly all of the primary states he has won thus far.

Obama is certain to lose some of these non-Democrat voters in the general election, if he is the Party’s nominee, “naturally.” That is, many independents and Republicans will return to the fold as more is known about him now, he is no longer a novelty, and the Rush Limbaugh factor—where independents and Republicans voted for one or the other of the Democratic candidates because Rush or some other windbag exhorted them to muck up the process—doesn’t play a role.

Obama is also certain to lose some of the independent and Republican voters, “unnaturally,” through the predations of the Wright issue, Bittergate, former Weather Underground member, William Ayers, lack of patriotic appropriate personal jewelry (flag lapel pin) and such stuff.

While it would be wrong to simply transfer current voting patterns from the Democratic primary to the general election whole hog, this confluence of events, demographics, and voting patterns ought to give the superdelegates some pause.

Especially as John McCain, a candidate who seemingly has no other qualities or abilities than to appeal to independents, yellow dog Democrats, and others skittish of Obama because of his bowling skills, former pastor, or the color of his skin, is standing heroically at the ready to welcome these folks who have been flirting with Obama into the welcoming and comforting arms of the Republican party. “My friends,” he will say (over and over again, no doubt), “you needn’t worry about me. At least the racist and whacked out pastor who supports me is white, and is a big fan of NASCAR… “So what if I am surrounded by lobbyists, and have them run my campaign though I profess to abhor their very souls…So what if I don’t know a Shiite from a Sunni, a micro economic from a macro one.” And the real kicker—“We’ll stay in Iraq for a hundred years if necessary, so we won’t have to fight them Sunnis or Shiites or whatever they are in the US of A.”

Very heartening, indeed.

And yet this is very likely where Democrats are headed, though, unless, as unlikely as it is, Hillary Clinton were to win both Indiana and North Carolina tonight or, later down the road should she survive tonight by at least winning Indiana, the superdelegates were to throw their support behind Clinton because she, through her training in Arkansas and her life with Bill, somehow inspires (or at least frightens less) white nabobs more than Obama.

Odd as it sounds—to Obama supporters or most of those in the media anyway—Clinton is more likely to get Obama’s supporters in the general election than the other way around. You may chalk this up to racism, Obama’s inexperience, or the fact that Clinton has done a much better job of positioning herself as the candidate of the center, instead of the left (an old and supremely successful Clinton trick), but the fact is, despite what Obama himself says, Clinton is more likely to get the liberal and black voters Obama is currently getting than he is to get the white working class or retired voters, yellow dog Democrats, and others that are part of the conservative wing of the Democratic party.

And, like it not, these folks are certain to play a crucial role in choosing the next president of the United States.