While I believe it isn’t very likely under any circumstances that Barack Obama will be elected this country’s next president, I think his only real chance to win, should he be the Democratic Party’s nominee, would be if he could get Hillary Clinton to be his second-in-command.
Vice Presidents generally play little or no role in putting a candidate over the top, unless perhaps the VP choice is immensely popular and from a crucial swing state (JFK, LBJ and Texas come to mind when Kennedy won Texas by 46,000 votes and defeated Nixon in 1960 by the slimmest of margins).
Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is a VP who could help Obama’s chances immensely, across the board. She’s beaten him in nearly all the big states and swing states and did so by appealing to exactly those voters Obama has the most trouble with—white working class voters, Hispanics, and older voters.
Clinton has negatives to be sure, and is hated in some quarters as much or more than her husband (who nonetheless is the first Democrat since FDR to be elected to two terms), but she has a ton of support and has earned a lot of admiration and even new voters (many of these white males, a real problem for her in the past) as she battles Obama to the very end. Although its part bluster and media hype, there is no question that HC has established herself as a candidate that is perceived as tough as nails in addition to being smart and generally somewhere near the center of the Party on most of the issues. As a result, a lot of the support she is now receiving is likely to transfer to the general election, even with Obama at the head of the ticket.
Even if some of the white working class voters she got in places like West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania go over to McCain, as they are sure to do, Clinton is in the best position of any possible VP candidate, including someone like Jim Webb of Virginia, to put all of these key states, with possibly the exception of West Virginia, into play.
Also, although there are those who will say that is ludicrous to not immediately include California and New York in Obama’s column, I am not so sure of this. McCain is just the kind of candidate who can appeal to important constituencies in these states. Hillary Clinton as VP will all but ensure that Jews in New York or Hispanics in California who appear to be skittish of Obama will help deliver both states.
Politicians have very thick skins when it comes to winning, so Obama should have no trouble choosing Clinton if he believes it is more likely to help him beat McCain. His staff have proven thus far to be both pragmatic in finding and targeting constituencies likely to vote for Obama and brilliant in their strategies to maximize votes through caucuses and other twists of the labyrinthine Democratic nominating process, so my guess is they are seriously considering pursuing Clinton as soon as it is appropriate to do so. With Clinton getting as much support and generating as much enthusiasm as Obama, it just doesn’t make sense to let all the air out of this exciting campaign by choosing as his VP candidate some wan, slightly right of center greybeard, as many are suggesting Obama do.
But what about Clinton, would she even take the VP, if offered? There are possible pitfalls if the duo were to be shellacked in November, though any harm from this would adhere much more to Obama than Clinton. Besides, as tone-deaf as Clinton can be at times, she can’t miss the Wagnerian blast of history-in-the-making that would sound should there be an Obama/Clinton ticket.
Even if there is an Obama/Clinton ticket, I’ll still be grousing about electability and fuming at various injustices both real and otherwise. But right now just the thought of Obama choosing Clinton as his running mate and Clinton accepting is making my keyboard chatter with excitement at the prospects.
There isn’t anyone who will help Obama more and no matter who McCain chooses as his VP, he or she will not have the potential to help him in the way Clinton can help Obama.
Besides, isn’t it a McCain/Bush ticket anyway?
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