Hillary Clinton has a new website that may help answer, at least partially, the question I asked yesterday about what she will do should she not win convincingly in the upcoming primaries in Ohio and Texas.
The website (delegatehub.com) purports to include “five facts about Democratic delegates,” and politicizes the very issues that will probably make or break her campaign:
(1) whither the superdelegates, and (2) what to do with those poor disenfranchised voters in Florida and Michigan.
In true Clintonian fashion the “facts” as Hillary sees them are a somewhat heavy-handed, self-serving parsing of reality that might do more harm than good. I take a look at these below. For her full discussion of these issues see the website.
Fact: Pledged delegates and automatic delegates are the same—they each count for ONE vote.
Fact: Neither candidate can secure the nomination without automatic delegates.
Fact: Automatic delegates are expected to exercise their best judgment in the interests of the nation and the Democratic Party.
Fact: Florida and Michigan should count, both in the interest of fundamental fairness and honoring the spirit of the Democrats’ 50-state strategy.
Fact: There is a clear path to an overall delegate majority (pledged + automatic) for Hillary Clinton after all states have voted—with or without Florida and Michigan.
This is just about the extent of the site though it also includes a rotating group of links that when I was viewing included a letter by a black superdelegate urging other black superdelegates supporting Clinton to resist the pressure to move to Obama; some words from Howard Dean, the DNC Chairman, on superdelegates that is ostensibly in line with Clinton’s understanding of the issue; and links to other articles or sites that she believes confirm one or another of her “facts.”
This tiny site popped up like a mushroom overnight and prominently features at the top of the page a big button so that you can send this info to your “friends, family, and co-workers.” It indicates at the very least that Clinton is contemplating what could be a bruising late-stage strategy to fight like hell to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates and to stop not only the peeling away of especially black superdelegates but quash Obama’s attempts to pressure the Party and the superdelegates to go to the candidate with the most actual votes. It also appears to contradict the several dunderheads on the various television programs this evening who, in the wake of Clinton and Obama’s debate in Texas tonight, marveled at her “valedictory” (Keith Olbermann) or “conciliatory” (some other schlump) manner and whether it might portend that she is getting ready to mail it in or even signal her desire to be Vice President! (Olbermann, again.)
Although this indication that she will continue to fight is heartening for those who believe she is the most electible candidate, Clinton’s facts, which are so crucial to her possible late-stage strategy, just aren’t convincing no matter what you think of her candidacy.
--Pledged delegates and superdelegates do each count as one vote but the pledged delegates represent thousands of votes and are proportional, whereas one superdelegate has the same voting power without representing anyone other than him or herself. It may be the rules that superdelegates are given equal footing with pledged delegates and one can argue that they should "vote their conscience" or do "what's best for the nation" (whatever that means) but it is a specious argument at best to suggest they are the “same.”
--It simply isn’t fair to count Florida and Michigan at this point. Yes, it was dumb of the DNC to come up with this hare-brained punishment (which looks increasingly like self-flagellation), but all the candidates agreed to this and, as a result, could not campaign in these states; in Michigan Obama wasn’t even on the ballot. There is little legal precedent for overturning a Party’s rules even if that means disenfranchising voters, apparently, and at least one Florida challenge to the DNC was dismissed before the primary there. A do over makes more sense though it is fraught with problems of its own.
--And Clinton’s clear path to victory? Even her husband doesn’t seem to think it’s all that clear anymore. He, James Carville, and nearly anyone who can speak believe that Clinton must do very well in both Ohio and Texas to just stay in the race. So whatever some campaign hack writes on Clinton's behalf, the path to victory, while not impossible at this point, isn’t a clear one at all.
I haven't touched on all of the Clinton facts but they all aim at the general strategy I’ve outlined. What they share in common is something that both Clintons have become too well known for despite their accomplishments and abilities: a reliance on technicalities, procedural minutiae, and parsing of meaning. Clinton even wants to bend language to her will and her campaign has requested that henceforth superdelegates be called automatic delegates as if that will somehow make them less conspicuous and less a point of contention.
None of these parlor tricks will seat the Florida or Michigan delegates or freeze the superdelegates in their current allegiances though, if Obama continues to be ahead in delegates and the popular vote after March 4. Surely, Hillary Clinton must know this.
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